How goods the cup! Here’s the everyday form version. This year we have rain predicted and just how much lands can have a major influence on the result. I have done this preview below on a SOFT 6-7 track. If it happened to get HEAVY, well that’s not great and not as confident.
I’ll have a different preview on BETSY but will go runner by runner with my preview here because I like to do that for people that want to share it with family members etc. Feel free to text or email friend’s links. I’ve tried to make this as easy to read as I could and will do an in depth preview for punter in another article.
(Just my thoughts, don’t let me put you off one if my comments are not complementary to the horse)
MELBOURNE CUP- 3200m – Flemington
1- AL RIFFA $8.50- British horse purchased by Aussie connections recently. By a super sire, has won or placed in 11 of 15 and in career best form. He has one of the world’s great young trainers and is primed for this. His last two wins in the Curragh Cup and G1 Irish St Leger (both 2816m) have been exceptional. He is a good stayer but has a sharp turn of foot to go with it. His jockey is the most in form of them all at the moment and the only little question is having to carry 59kg.
2-BUCKAROO $9 – The first of Wallers team (Winx trainer for the once-a-year punters). This horse seems to race best in the spring and was one of the favourites in this race last year. Not much went right that day and his run was awesome. He is going just as well this year and only beaten a nose in the Cox plate (best 2000m race we have). He drew a good barrier here, has a top shelf jock and handles all conditions. Does have to carry 2.5kg more this year though.
3- ARAPAHO $51- Won the 3200m Sydney Cup easily back in April. If he brought that form he’d be a hope. Hasn’t shown anything like that form this time in and would have to improve out of sight to trouble these. The positive is he loves the rain if it pisses down.
4- VAUBAN $26 – I won’t be falling for him again. I have backed him in the last two Melbourne Cups and he finished 14th and 11th. Has joined Waterhouse/Bott stable this year and mixing his form up. Trust him as much as me leaving the last beer in the esky.
5- CHEVALIER ROSE $51 – The Japanese stayers are better than ours, but this horses recent form is rubbish. Don’t really know about a wet track but they usually like it dry and firm. Needs to find the good form he had 6 months ago.
6- PRESAGE NOCTURNE $8- Here’s a live chance. He’s a French galloper (and a grey for those who care) Drew the perfect gate and likely to land midfield and get a sweet run in transit. The overseas form was very good and he will run the 3200m out strongly. He ran the best L200m split of the Caulfield Cup and he handles all types of conditions, so the rain is no hindrance. Hard to beat.
7- MIDDLE EARTH $34- Ran 3rd in the Moonee Vally Cup last week but form before that had been pretty plain. Drops in weight, in a great stable but does have to improve many lengths.
8- MEYDAAN $19- I wrote this horse off after the Caulfield Cup but I might have got him wrong. Caulfield is a tight track, he wobbled around the corner and didn’t handle it at all. He still ran the 3rd best L200m of the race. Gets to the big Flemington track, gets the worlds best jockey on and he is over the right odds at $19. Barrier 22 is a concern but that’s why you put James McDonald on, he makes anything work.
9- ABSRUDE $21- I’ve fallen for this bloke in two Melb Cups too but his runs have been good enough. Finished 7th and 5th in them. Love his trainer Willie Mullins but Asburde’s form this year hasn’t been much chop at all. The Caulfield Cup run was just a pass mark and he has to somehow improve 5-6L which I can’t see him doing.
10- FLATTEN THE CURVE $34 – French bred-German raced horse whose last start was in America. Backed this bloke about three weeks ago and still like his chances. Many say the German form is just shit now and I can understand that. I just believe my eyes when I watch the replays and I like what I see in this horse. He jumps well, travels sweetly and he can accelerate at the end of a 3200m race. Handles all conditions and has won 6 of his last 7 races. I don’t even mind they brought their own jockey as he looks to ride well and knows the horse better than anyone. Very surprised he is $34.
11- LAND LEGEND $101- Hasn’t beaten a horse home in his last two runs. 18th of 18 and 14th of 14. Needs a miracle. (insert prayer hands emoji)
12- SMOKIN’ ROMANS $101- Has mixed his form and not been great. About as consistent as me picking my clothes up off the floor. Does like the wet and will be near the lead but can be a weak animal late in races (also a bit like me).
13-CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD $101- Should be 200/1.
14- HALF YOURS $6 – Might start favourite. I’ve loved this horse all the way through. Won the Caloundra Cup on wet ground and stamped himself as a Cups horse after that. Looked a good thing in the Caulfield Cup (the main lead up race) and he dually saluted. He absolutely thrives on wet track and only has to carry 51kg. Think the Caulfield race was a more suitable one for him and he may have peaked (can they keep him up for one more run), but this rain gives him a huge chance.
15- MORE FELONS $81- In the Waller stable and the last couple of runs have been alright in easier grade. Has been ok through the line, wet track is ok and will run the trip out. I can’t see him winning but better chance than some others around the same price.
16- ONESMOOTHOPERATOR $18- Nooooooo, it’s not named after me! British traveler but this horse just loves Australia. Won the Geelong Cup last year before having excuses and finishing midfield in this last year. He was going like a busted bum this year, returns to OZ and wins the Moonee Vally Cup in good fashion last week. Everything has panned out with a good barrier draw……… then the rain come. He wants it as dry as possible, so the less it rains the better.
17- FURTHUR $26- These northern hemisphere 3yr olds have a wonderful record in the cup. I don’t think this bloke is as good as some that have won it as 3yr olds but I don’t think the cup is as strong now. My main concern is that he mixes his form and hard to know what you are going to get. If he brings his best, he is a live hope.
18- PARCHMENT PARTY $41 – We have never had an American run in the race until now. Some will say he won in the wet by 8.5 lengths two runs back. That was actual dirt/mud though and no guide for me. To be honest, I don’t know, maybe the USA form holds up and he runs well. ??? Has won 4 of 11 and that’s always a good sign. $41 seems about right.
19- ATHABASCAN $101- Another who had just been going terrible all preparation and pulls a run out of the hat from nowhere. 2nd in the MV Cup at $20 last start but this is harder. Wet track is good but I think he is past his best these days.
20- GOODIE TWO SHOES $41- Better than a $41 chance. She jumps slow but I expect her to roll forward and be near the lead. She is a genuine stayer who will stick around like the mother-in-law. Only has a small turn of foot though and then she sort of plateaus. Drops from 61kg in recent runs to just 51.5kg and she will surprise a few.
21- RIVER OF STARS $17- Genuinely not sure what to do with her. She had very good overseas form and then joined the Waller stable. Had been plain all prep before running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup at $91 last start. If she runs up to that or improves, she’s a chance. I just have some trust issues with her if I am being honest.
22- ROYAL SUPREMACY $31- Barrier gods weren’t good to him. He is over the right price though. He has great form this preparation. Ran 2nd in the Newcastle cup before winning the Group1 Metropolitan and running 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Trainer is a genius and he said the horse would appreciate any rain that fell. Has last years winning jockey on board and he can run well.
23-TORRANZINO $31- He’s the equivalent to your junk yard dog. Has a knockabout trainer, female jockey and is the one who keeps surprising people. Won the Geelong Cup to secure his spot in the Cup and was very good the run before that as well. It was a plain edition of that race but all you can do is win. With just 51kg I expect them to be positive early and land in the first 4-5 horses settling. Might look the winner on the corner but don’t think he has the class to win it.
24- VALIANT KING $7- Another Waller runner and this horse got under my guard. He’d been a myth most of his life and was just a pack follower. The blinkers went on two starts ago and he’s turned into a dead set rocket. Won the Group 2 Bart Cummings over 2520m on this track and then an eye-catching 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. This big track suits, carries just 51kg and the blinkers say he can win for sure.
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ARTICLE WITH OTHER BEST BETS below:
Flemington Melbourne Cup day thoughts | Gibbo’s brissyraces.com.au
