Pretty ordinary event this one and the market looks to have it pretty spot on.
Known for ‘THE BEAR TRAP’ holes 15-16-17 is where the tournament is decided Sunday. A heap of water in play, thick rough and sand aplenty adds to the test.
Not a great field and is this the big chance for Brooks to have a good week back? (Betfair prices at time of typing)
Leading the market are RYAN GERARD $18 and SHANE LOWRY $19. Not going silly at those prices but they have to be winning results for me. Lowry is class and has a good record on this course (2nd, 5th, 4th, 11th in his last 4 starts here) while Gerard is on the way up and started the year well (2nd in Hawaii, T2 at The American Express, T11, T45, T28) and is 7th on the Fed Ex points.
It is only a matter of time until NICOLAI HOJGAARD $24 or MICHEAL THORBJORNSEN $29 get their first tour win. N HOJGAARD has only had the two starts this year and has been T22 and T3. Leading Shots gained off the tee and 3rd in Shots gained total. He is knocking the door down and $24 seems ok against this lot! THORBJORSEN had his first win in sight at the Phoenix Open. He was leading with a couple to go and made a big mistake on the par 3. Not surprised there was some scare tissue there at the next tournament but still made the cut, so not hopeless. Look for the bounce back here. His Achilles heel is the putter, ranked 154th and needs that to improve.
BROOKS KOEPKA $50 – Results have not been what he wanted back on the Tour (T56 and missed cut). His game has actually been way better than that. He’s ranked nearly last in putting and that’s been the whole issue. If he gets the putter even remotely working, he’s right in this with his approach game.
I’d be happy to play those above.
Depending how you bet, you might consider some others.
AARON RAI $50 has the good all-round games to compete here. In the group with Lowry and Horschel who both have great records here. Made 3/3 cuts this year and was T28 in a way better tournament last week.
If you want some X factor at huge odds:
maybe the young guns BLADES BROWN $200 and A.J. EWART $310
BROWN was T18 at the American Express and shot a 2nd round 60, get outta here. He’s still extremely raw at 18 years old obviously, but he has the skills to pay the bills. A.J.EWART is a young Canadian (26) and only turned pro in 2023. Missed the cut in the season opener but has made his last three cuts (44th, 49th and then 28th at the Phoenix open). Strongest part of the game has been Shot gained off the tee, but is solid all round and no weakness other than lacking experience on the tour.
Nicolai Hojgaard
