The around the grounds bets last week were a saving grace with 4/5 winning and only missing the roughie. Just ok at Doomben but hopefully a winning day for most punters.
*This is a really good days racing but before we start I can tell you that i HAVE HARDLY HAD A BET. As good of a day as it is I simply don’t see anything I want to load up on or throw money at. Happy to watch most of the day personally.*
Also just weighing up different options on BRISSYRACES going forward. I’ve been doing a lot of form for the northern rivers and a little interstate without putting it on site and there’s a chance it will take up more of the site instead of just Brisbane racing which might take a bit more of a back seat. Away from the work I’ve enjoyed with BRC (who have been great to me) I’ve struggled to get much support (if any) in the sunshine state so there may be a few changes if it continues to go that way. Simply can’t keep promoting without being able to make an earn and I really don’t want to charge for this site so we will just see how the next few months pan out.
We should get 1,000,000 page hits in 2019 so not looking at shutting up shop but like everyone I need to make a quid and if it’s doing more work elsewhere and less on here that’s another option.
Have a great weekend everyone and thanks for checking in!!
For those new to the sight we usually have big detailed previews, I just have no confidence so don’t want to waffle on and waste people’s time when i’m not keen.
Race 1: *
I don’t think NOBLE BOY is as good as everyone else thinks he is but in saying that everything points to him here. He is placed beautifully, he gets a good gate, a fast run race and J Mac on. If he’s as good as everyone says he’ll just win but no way in the world could I take $1.80 about him.
I don’t really want to back him but can’t find anything else to back either.
*Staying out.
************************************************************************
Race 2: *
Dartboard job here. Honestly, this race will simply be won by the horse who gets the best ride or has the most luck. Most of them come through the race CRUZE won and there wasn’t much between a lot of them there either. Would have backed SNITCH from a good gate but since has drawn poorly I’m not as keen.
THE AVENGER, SO SPIRITED (blinkers back on) and TOKORIKI LAD all make their runs together and all live chances but we could be here all day trying to split them and spitting out all the data/times/sectionals but it’s all just a guess.
UPDATE- Just going back over this market I feel SNITCH may actually be a little value. His run was as good as any last start and the $21 is just tempting enough for a min bet.
*Was going to stay right away from this race but now SNITCH has got out to $21 ill have just a very small play him.
***********************************************************************
Race 3: * * * *
Here’s one I have backed. LORD ARTHUR. Now I have to admit when I first went through his replays i wasn’t convinced as I didn’t think his runs were all that good and the horse he beat INTRIGUE was overrated (in my mind). Also the fact that he started 20/1 last start when blowing them away but the more I look at him the more there is to like. He is in one of the best ‘staying stables’ in Australasia, he’s bred to be good, he has J Mac on and 2200m at EF looks ideal. Happy to take anything around $3.50.
VOW AND DECLARE was poor last start but previous career form was good. He is a genuine stayer and getting out over this trip is perfect. No doubt he improves off this run but feel he can be a player.
Gollan has timed the prep of A MAN TO MATCH beautifully and he is building to a career best. Can be in the money. Might forgive NAPOLEON SOLO the poor run last time, he finished next to Belle Roc before that and she’s been good since.
Feel the girls have a lap on most of the boys and ANGEL OF HEAVEN is an improving filly. This might all have come a little soon but if she improves again off her last start when she was unlucky she can play a role here.
On Top: 8-LORD ARTHUR $3.60
Next Best: 13-ANGEL OF HEAVEN $17, 4-VOW AND DECLARE, 2-A MAN TO MATCH
************************************************************************
Race 4: * *
Feel the leaders can be advantaged even though it’s not an easy task to lead all the way around here. QUILISTA was dominant over the 1200m last week, the 1300m around EF might be her outer limits but she does have class, she has won on the back up and she will lead these for a long way.
SAVATIANO is very consistent but just 1-2L off being a genuine G1/2 mare. She sits on speed and gives a nice kick but she just doesn’t find that extra length to put good fields away. Back to 1300m is ideal and she is a chance to grab the leaders back and get a free tow into the race.
Thought PLATINUM ANGEL would have won race 1 but they have decided to go here. She can run well but has a bit against her.
*At $3 for both the leaders i don’t think there is any meat on the bone to be honest and not great betting prospects.
On Top: 4-8-11
************************************************************************
Race 5: * *
TOM TOM TOM, can you believe he’s $2.20? He looks really well placed at WFA and his last run was excellent! I have him on top and the horse to beat but I enjoy money too much to risk it on Thomas! He can win without me and it won’t bother me in the least.
On Top: 1-TOM MELBOURNE but not taking the price.
***********************************************************************
Race 6: * * * *
Good edition of the Sires. Best of those who contested the main lead up race was probably STRASBOURG but GARIBALDI and DISRUPTOR were not far off him either. Both those horses are live chances but I just feel the Snowdens have STRASBOURG timed to the minute. He ran the best L200m and really attacked the line in that lead up. Good gate, 1400m and EF all look suitable.
GEM OF SCOTLAND is the x-factor, this is another big leap for her but she just keeps jumping what they put in front of her. The run last week 4-5 wide the trip was outstanding but she is going to need a 10/10 ride from the wide gate, there is a chance they may try to roll forward.
ACCESSION is a very good colt who will look the winner, just a little concern for me the last 50m.
On Top: 2-STRASBOURG $4.40
Next Best: 6-DISRUPTOR, 11-GEM OF SCOTLAND, 1-ACCESSION
************************************************************************
Race 7: *
No not interested.
Like the fact blinkers go on OUR LIBRETTO but Kah completely lost sight of the bunny at Doomben and from the bad gate I have no confidence she will ride it any better. Eagle Farm will suit but you still don’t want to sit last.
*Pass.
************************************************************************
Race 8: *
It might be the feature but again I won’t bet.
Way too many chances and again luck just plays too big of a role for me to get involved.
If i have to tip people something it is that VICTOREM, RINGERDINGDING and OUTBACK BARBIE all run well and stamp themselves as the horses to beat in a stradbroke.
As for this race, it’s a WFA race with pretty much no WFA horses engaged.
*Pass
************************************************************************
Race 9: * * *
Thought SEABROOK was the one over the right odds here. Opened $18 and she brings the A grade form to the race. She comes out of top shelf Group races including her last start when good behind Kenedna. She gets gate 1 to get a gun run in transit and no issue at the 1400m off a bit of a freshen.
VEGA ONE is a barrier rouge and my concern is Shinn knew the horse and bounced him out from the inside last start. Lloyd goes on from a bad gate, I have a feeling he might be further back here. In saying that, if he runs the splits he did last start he probably wins again, he was the run of the day last start.
MILITARY ZONE got a long way out of his ground in a walking race at Scone. He was given no hope and the run was excellent. No need to get that far back and he is sure to come with a rush, leading hope. SIGNORE FOX also comes out of that race and his late splits were also good, he can go in exotics for value.
*Was very keen to back SEABROOK 1w x 3p at the $18/$5 but that has been snapped up.
Might play a trifecta: 2-6-12 /// 2-4-5-6-12 /// 2-4-5-6-12
Value: 12-SEABROOK (opened $18)
Hardest To Beat: 2-MILITARY ZONE, 6-VEGA ONE
************************************************************************
GIBBOS BEST:
*Whole preview and best to be updated after 9am Saturday*
Best:
Race 3 No.8- LORD ARTHUR $3.50
Next best:
Race 6 No.2-STRASBOURG $4.40
************************************************************************
‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:
Race 8 No.15- IRITHEA
Race 7 No.11- IGRAINE $15
