THE PUNT looks at Eagle Farm this week
RAIL—TRUE
Rating- (Should be DEAD-GOOD, perfect for racing)
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS:
February 09
EPSILON EAGLE FARM R1 No.6 (1000m) : Tough to beat fav but looks a good horse.
SOOKIE EAGLE FARM R5 No.4 (1200m) : Suitable and hard to beat.
LENNIE’S CHOICE EAGLE FARM R5 No.7 (1200m) : Good outsiders chance (tough gate)
ROCKET TO GLORY EAGLE FARM R7 No.14 (1000m) : Hard race to win but going well..
*Prices are Tattsbet prices at time of typing.
**For those new to the site or ‘THE PUNT’ this is simply my take on the races.. You can make what you want with the info. Feel free to print out or send to a mate via e-mail or link.
We will also be posting the ‘early mail’ every Thursday where I will target horses that have or may open at inflated prices. Check in for that.
*You can also hear a quick interview on www.helter-skelter.com.au
UPDATED…
Race 1:
TIP TOP TIGER may well be an exceptional type and nothing would surprise.
Happy to just watch at that price but very keen to see him step out.
Was taken with EPSILON on debut, will improve and can run well.
Race 2:
Good way to go broke punting on these races!
You can make a case for most of them.
Not overly keen to be betting but feel FLYING HOME is the horse who has the brightest future. Cahill goes on and if there is enough tempo he can get over them late. In saying that, the tempo is a question.
Edmonds camp have done a great job with BID SPOTTER and a similar effort to Millions day would have him around the mark.
On Top: 8- FLYING HOME ($5 Tatts)
Danger- 1- BID SPOTTER
Race 3:
Here is my snippet from the ‘early mail’ looking for value y’day.
ROCK HOME LATE
*Always takes a couple to come to hand.
*Doesn’t go at all on wet ground so the heavy track run will probably just double his odds. There are showers around but I’m banking on a dead track or better (NOTHING WORSE).
*Drops 5.5kg on last run, gets to set the tempo and can be hard to catch at what I think should be a big
The obvious ones to beat are ACHIEVEMENTS and WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY. They may well be a class above these but at the prices I’m happy to have something sneaky on the bottom weight.
Value- 7- ROCK HOME LATE
Others- 4- WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY, 3- ACHIEVEMENTS
Race 4:
Still confused here!
Looks a great betting race with value around.’The Prophet’ like ARCTIC and he may well be the best horse in the race. My only concern was the 3 ½ weeks between runs, but with the nice gate and back to E-F he is the one to beat.
The mare PRECIOUS MANDY and WHITESALES are screaming for the 1600m and are both in great form. They can run well from inside draws at $7 and $5.50 respectively.
MANICERO $10, HUSSONETTE $13 and MY PRIVATE DANCER $26 can all have cases made for them
MANICERO won 3rd up last start and Cahill will try to roll over and sit in the first few settling here. At the $10 it may be worth considering a wager on if looking for value.
On Top: 2- MANICERO $10
Hardest To Beat: 5- ARCTIC, 10- WHITESAILS, 8- PRECIOUS MANDY
Race 5:
Settled on SOOKIE even though I don’t like the girls giving weight to the boys. The form from the TUKIYO race is huge and she should have won that day. She ran 2nd in the Listed Mode Plate before that. Bell should find a good spot and she will give a great sight.
LOCK’S LEGEND backs up but went super last week and looks a very good type. Uses no petrol from the gate and should run well.
Class factor sits with NOOGOORA BURR who did look plain last week but things did go wrong, and TRAKSTAR who I think can run very well fresh and will be coming at a rate of knots late here. Good claim from Gollan and this horse could take a huge leap forward in his 2nd prep.
Liked the win of LENNIE’S CHOICE in the midweeks where he ran quicker time than the class 3 on the same day. This is many grades harder and has to overcome the gate but can run first 4 with luck.
On Top: 4- SOOKIE
Hardest To Beat: 6- LOCK’S LEGEND, 2- TRAKSTAR, 1- NOOGOORA BURR
Race 6:
Good betting 1200m with a lot of different formlines!
1,2,3,5,11,13 all have early speed and I would expect them to burn a bit early. Looking for a horse to sit just off them and gambling a little with the leaders.
VINTAGE MOSS obviously opened fav but from gate 9, up 3kg and in what looks a harder race I will look for more value. (Respecting it more now LUCKY SOUND is SCRATCHED)
LUCKY SOUND is well above average and performs terrific fresh! I would hope they take a sit from gate 11 and not get in a speed battle. If they decide to do that he looks a great price at $4 in early trading.
PELLIGRINI is the other runner I will be having something on at $8. Good form in NZ. Gelded and sent to the Heathcote yard. Good fresh form and with top jock on board can be a major player.
JUGAHLATION and BRIBIE both legitimate chances but I will focus on the two mentioned.
On Top: 8- PELLIGRINI $8
Race 7:
1000m scamper with a capacity field!
If AZZALAND drew a gate I would have been pretty keen on him at a good price. Gate makes it tough but worth throwing in quad’s.
LIESELE looked plain 1st up but Browne stays on and she deserves another chance.
BETTER THAN READY is an exceptional colt and even from the gate he will fly late and is the horse they all have to beat.
HAIZUM and CARRY TO FORTUNE are out and out 1000m horses and need to be respected.
The drop in trip should also help SILVER BULLION. Yet another good ride for Cahill!
TOMBOY should need further but will 51kg she will get home hard.
SHAFEEQ was good at the coast and flies 2nd up. Gate 3 gives him a cushy run and Matheson claims. Worth plenty of consideration at $15.
*As exceptional as I think BETTER THAN READY is, I’m not sure this is actually that clear cut??
On Top: 11- SHAFFEQ – 7- BETTER THAN READY
Race 8:
I have been all over LONGSHOREMAN all prep, sung his praises and he saluted last start, so why am I getting off? I have no knock on him at all but simply think the $3 on offer is more a reflectance of his big win on his favoured Heavy surface win.
VIKING HEART was 2nd on that occasion. The dry track, the good gate and the fact he is 2 ½ times the price of LONGSHOREMAN steers me into him. Here is the ‘early mail’ comment.
*Not sure if Colless had the choice but he is on this instead of Dusty Gold.
*This horse has come back in career best form. Heavy was unsuitable last start and he still ran out of his skin.
*Dry track and good gate are the key.
*Anything around the $7 mark or above would be a price I’d snap up.
DUSTY GOLD is flying for Dunn and needs to be respected with Morning Captain form.
PROST gets things to suit 2nd up with a claim and stays on fav track.
REVITALISE is the horse who may jump out of the ground at big odds.
On Top: 7- VIKING HEART e/w
GIBBO’S BEST BETS
Best e/w – Race 8 No.7 VIKING HEART
This weeks ‘Longshot’ – Race 7 no.11 SHAFEEQ @ $15
Brisbane Quadrella:
1,2,4,6 —– 1,3,4,8,12 —– 4,7,11 —– 2,3,4,7
‘THE PROPHET’s’ BEST BETS:
Brisbane Race 4 No.5 ARCTIC
Brisbane Race 6 No.8 PELLEGRINI
TATTS JACKPOT AND PROMOS:
