FLEMINGTON – Derby Day
The best day on the racing calendar.
THIS IS JUST AN EARLY LOOK, weather and other things can change AND THIS WILL CHANGE AND BE UPDATED SATURDAY if need be.
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Quaddie numbers (last four races)
1,3,10
1
1,2,3,4,6,10
2,3,5,13,14
Race 1:
Too many different formline and these are all at such different times of their prep I just don’t want to get involved for the sake of it.
On Top: Nope
Race 2:
You’d think I’d learn to not back horses with shit get back patterns but NO, here we go again. TEINE AULELEI had shown decent ability in a few runs but learning all the time. Ridden cold last week at the Valley and what a shit show! No doubt in the world she should have won and 1400m on a big track suits. Issue is she will land last here and we don’t know what making ground will be like?
CHATTERLEY and LADY PANKHURST bring the PANOVA form, I don’t think that’s good form but you will know as PANOVA goes around in race 1.
Liked the run on SHEZA ALIBI for Moody fresh and can improve off that. Maps to get run of the race.
ICARIAN DREAM comes through better races but has the weight.
Good race this this.
On Top: 9-TEINE AULELEI
Next Best: 4-SHEZ A ALIBI, 1-ICARIAN DREAM
Race 3:
What a race.
Off the trials this prep I have been saying CABALLUS will win a good race. He finds a tough one but the fresh run was outstanding. Best L400m and 200m of the Sydney stakes and has won 2 of 3 second up. Like them all, just needs luck in running.
STAR PATROL has an incredible record at Flemington down the straight 9:3:2:1. Maps to be on speed and his big stride just suits this track. Not far off a very good one last start and can win.
LIBERTAD and BOSUSTOW both hopes and genuine group 2-3 horses.
I’d put a line through DISNECK if it wasn’t Bakers horse, watch what the money says.
On Top: 5-CABALLUS $4
Next Best: 4-STAR PATROL, 1-LIBERTAD, 2-BOSOUSTOW, 11-DISNECK
Race 4:
No doubt GETTA GOOD FEELING will be heavily supported and fair enough coming out of the best races and running particularly well. The Thousand Guineas form is the best form and she’s the one to beat.
I feel FREEDOM FLAME could be the one to upset the fave. Has been a better horse getting out in trip. Her and the runner up put a gap in the rest of them in the Hill Smith stakes in Adelaide. The big track will suit here and expect her to be the testing material.
Maybe PRESTIGE SNITZEL and STRICTLY BUSINESS could be in exotics here.
On Top: 3-FREEDOM FLAME $8
Next Best: 1-GETTA GOOD FEELING
Race 5:
I understand why KING ZEPHYR is fave but gee whiz it’s short. Lots of others here I like but just at prices the race doesn’t interest me.
On Top: Nothing.
Race 6:
Gee I think BEADMAN is a good horse. Beautiful looking Snitzel colt who has been handled particularly well by Snowden. The win on the GC last prep was breath taking and his latest run was a horror show for backers. Just no luck when needed and was a moral beaten. Trialled down the straight last week like a bomb and ready to go!
I think BEIWACHT is a star. Can sit on a good tempo and extend. Love the fact he was so strong at 1400m last start and just smashed them. If he reproduces that he will take beating.
Other winning hope is TENTYRIS. Love this stable and this looks set to explode here. Good support last start, was in trouble, weaved through and found a way. Just strikes me as a horse who can balance up down the straight and it will be ideal.
On Top: 10 BEADMAN $5
Hardest To Beat: 1-BEIWACHT, 3-TENTYRIS
Race 7:
Well it’s hard to go against OBSERVER. Should have won the Guineas and pissed in last week in the Vase. Jock sitting up didn’t give us a guide as to exactly how strong he’d have been at the end of it but he was good. Clearly the one to beat.
Always like the Vase form and thought both PROVIDENCE and O’SHEAMUS were as good as each other. PROVIDENCE caught the eye but mixes form and still maiden whereas O’SHEAMUS just a consistent type getting better all the time.
Can’t fault AUTUMN MYSTERY and ARABIAN PRINCE but the race they come through was a blanket finish.
On Top: 1-OBSERVER
Hardest To Beat: 9-O’SHEAMUS, 6-PROVIDENCE, 3-AUTUMN MYSTERY
Race 8:
Hard race for the quaddie.
I can’t stand PRIDE OF JENNI. She has amazing ability but the last two preps have been nightmares for punters, wins or goes like a maiden. Can’t back her with confidence and can’t go against her with confidence.
FANGIRL has an amazing record but she’s not one of mine too. Was against her last start and just ok through the line. Another though that has class to win if right. Want to take her on but haven’t got the balls for it.
ABOUNDING is probably the wrong price. She has been amazing this prep and deserved the G2 win last start. A mile on the big track if Jenni runs along is a query but she’s flying.
If they find a spot midfield on LEICA LUCY she might be the one. One eye blinker goes on and if that happens to straighten her up the turn of foot might be too good. Zahra rides and big track suits.
IDLE FLYER can’t go any better. But this is harder and set weights? Hard to leave out. I’ve had a gutful of ON DISPLAY but she’s better than last start.
DAMASK ROSE is one hard to get a line on. Has built to the right trip and last start never got clear so it’s hard to know where she’s at. Getting t Flemington is a big tick, Shinn on and the kiwi wins were brilliant.
On Top: 6-LEICA LUCY $6
Next Best: 1-PRIDE OF JENNI, 3-ABOUNDING, 2-FANGIRL, 10-IDLE FLYER, 4-DAMASK ROSE
Race 9:
Get the dartboards out. My gut tells me the outside might be the place to be but still a bit of a guess.
I’ll go from top to bottom. ARABIAN SUMMER is a good honest horse who probably wasn’t at her very best last start. This is a good trip for her and she has a bit of class.
SHE’S BULLETPROOF bounced back in good style last start. Form has held up through Vestas and back to 1100m is good for her. STRETAN ANGEL has always been a horse I like but doesn’t win out of turn. Got it done last start and looked good there.
GENEROSITY cost me a fortune last start and thought she was plain. This is much easier but needs a Berry special from the inside gate.
The bottom three. SOFT LOVE’s best is very good. Best L200m in the Listed race fresh and has run well down the straight before. FLYING FOR FUN a good roughie. Reckon the big expanses of Flemington and being drawn out wide are huge positives, can surprise them here. PHOTOGRAPH is a horse on the way up but she looks a far superior wet tracker to me. If it rains or gets to a soft 6 she’d be a bet.
Good luck in the quaddie!
On Top: 14-FLYING FOR FUN $20
Hardest To Beat: 13,2,3,5
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