Fields and draws are out early for the weekend.
I won’t go into detail on the Q22. It is simply a matter of if ZAAKI lets down on the track he will win. Does he let down? Most likely but even though I think he’s the best horse in oz I can’t bet when I don’t know and at the $1.50.
Here is a look at the J.J ATKINS Group 1 1600m Two Years Old:
1-TIGER OF MALAY– Three wide with cover in the lead up. Found the front and showed a turn of foot around the 300m. Was able to hold off the closers and it’s a big tick having won on this track. Obviously a live chance.
2-CONVERGE– He’s the one they all have to beat. Showed very good form in Sydney where they were using him early and punching him up on speed. Had to go back in the Sires and he savaged the line. From the good gate he can sit 5-6th and saved for the last crack at the leaders. This looks tailor made off the last start run and he deserves to be fav.
3-SUBTERRANEAN– Nice G3 winner at the GC before racing 4 wide in the Sires. Still good through the line there and he’s far from the worst in the race. Needs to make up a bit on the trifecta there though.
4-OVERPASS– Good run in the lead. Had every chance and finished 4th. Just hard to see him turning the tables on the first few home.
5-PORT LOUIS- May end up the best horse to come out of the race. No doubt he will be a better horse next prep. He was truckloaded in the G1 Champagne in Syd and run well without a lot of luck. Looked the winner in the Sires and just peaked late? Thought we might have seen some head gear added to make sure it was fitness and not loss of concentration last start. He’s a good one.
6-VOLCANIC ROCK- He will be let rip as it’s the best way to ride him and probably suits the stablemate as well. You know he likes the track as he won last week. He will continue to find under pressure and can land in the money without surprising.
7-RANCH HAND– He is a nice horse but I can’t help but think he’s better on wet ground and EF might not be his track. He was $8 into $5.50 last start so must still be going well for them at home.
8-BLUCHING TYCOON– Hard to line the form up but will roll forward from the gate and maybe land outside leader. Has looked gone in his last couple of runs before lifting late and running the 2nd best L200m in both of those runs. Really hard for me to assess him. Might be better than avg?
9-OVERMANN– He ran 2nd in a maiden to Astrologer with a big gap to the 3rd horse (4L) and then was able to run over VOLCANIC ROCK in Sydney so that win is looking better now the form is franked a bit. Not in my numbers but admit he looks a nice horse in the making.
10-CAPE BRETON- $3.70 to $5 on debut. Skipped away and then looked to peak but good enough to hold on and win. Went around at Rosehill last week and was $2.40-$3.80 and won again! He was challenged and found to be good through the line and stamp himself as a contender here. Not sure why he’s been drifting each start.
11-GIANNIS– Had issues at the gate two runs back, cleared to run and then lame after race. Ran 5th in the Sires and it was more than a pass mark. Just find it hard to see 4L improvement that he’d need to make from that run.
12-DARK REBEL– Wouldn’t surprise me to see this 50/1 pop land in the money or run last. He debuted on a heavy track and looked extremely impressive. Drew wide in Sires and then went back before getting tongue over the bit so you have to pretend he didn’t run. If you do that then we can only go off the debut. Nothing would surprise and the trainer comes off his first G1 winner last week.
13-THREE WISE MEN– Far from the worst. Got back last start and ran the best L200m against OVERMANN and VOLCANIC ROCK. Meets them both 2kg worse at the weights but has upside. This looks to be a strong run mile and that should suit this horse well.
14-INVINSIBLE TEARS- The only filly in the race. Personally I don’t see her as a miler though. She will be winning more races, I just don’t think it will be this one.
GIBBO’S J.J.ATKINS Numbers 2021
2-CONVERGE
5-PORT LOUIS
1-TIGER OF MALAY
12-DARK REBEL
13-THREE WISE MEN
(Those wondering about a cheap exotics play I don’t mind Trifecta
2 // 1,5,6,8,12,13 //1,5,6,8,12,13 which is $30 for 100% or $15 for 50%)
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STRADBROKE HANDICAP 2021:
(Nobody has wanted to be hard fence over the carnival and expecting more of the same which makes this a bit tricky. Don’t ask me why they don’t go there, I don’t know why they spread 10 wide around the corner and go for home at the 550m either)
1-MR QUICKIE– He’s a proven horse and i’ve been thinking all along this looked a good race for him. Nobody has wanted to be on the fence at EF so barrier 1?
2-SAVATOXL– Off the last run I don’t think he can win.
3-TOFANE– You’d say the fresh run was a barrier trial. Then trialled and improved sharply in the BRC sprint. She finished next to AXE who would need a lasso to keep up here but she drops from 60kg there and fitter again.
4-IMAGING- Would have loved him to draw a gate. He doesn’t have much luck in the run and just struggles to get it done. He is a genuine WFA horse and he does have the quality to win this.
5-OLMEDO– Not for me.
6-SO SI BON– One start here (last time out) and went horrible.
7-WILD PLANET– Crucial to find the back of the right horse here. Has drawn one outside of Niccanova and I’d just be jumping straight on his back and get a free tow the entire way. He was the best L200m of the 10,000 and pried to run a career best here.
8-NICCANOVA– Reckon he’s the one they have missed price wise ($21). He was 4W no cover in the Kingsford Smith and he had to start moving at the 800m. Great effort to finish as close as he did. He was a G2 winner in great style the run before that. Won or placed in 9 of 12 here. Airborne and overs.
9-I AM SUPERMAN– His best is good enough but I simply can’t catch the horse
10-VICTOREM– He was one of the better runs in the main lead up. He’s been aimed for this and draws perfectly. He’s had some leg issues and my concern is if he feels that on the firm track? He was $10 in this race last year but lame after it.
11-VEGA ONE– J.Kah off is always a concern. If you put that out of your head then he’d be the one. He’s improved each run this prep and went like a bomb to win the Kingsford-Smith. Beaten 0.6L in this race last year from a wide gate. Draws really well but King won’t want to be dictated to and stuck on the inside, that’s the concern. If he’d drawn wider he’d be on top for me.
12-THE HARROVIAN– There are not many more consistent than this bloke. His run in the All star mile was a ripper and the 10,000 run excellent. He draws perfectly to sit midfield with cover and he looks timed to the minute from the Edmonds camp. You’d love Stewart on but the weight has dictated Boss gets the ride.
13-SIGNORE FOX– Another horse in great form but he draws to get a long way back and he’s going to need to find a couple of lengths and have some luck. Not the worst by a long way though.
14-EMERALD KINGDOM– He’s going to be one of the leaders in the battle up front. Not sure the BRC sprint was the formline we thought it would be and he’s not one of mine.
15-MADAM ROUGE– Not much surprises me with this horse. Last time she had anything near this weight was in this race last year. She looked the winner for all money that day until Tyzone nailed her on the line. She was in the slow lanes last start and expect her to improve sharply.
16-SUBPOENAED– Comes here off a G1 placing in Adelaide and possible career best form. From the gate she goes back to last or they risk being four wide? Lots of queries but she has one of the best turns of foot in the race.
17-MASTER JAMIE– Not in this grade for me.
18-APACHE CHASE– Been keen on him since the last start victory but gee there are some pests for him here and they all sound like they are going to push on. He can just find off those fast tempo’s so with the lightweight he will be a player. Even more so if a few let him lead on his own.
GIBBOS SELECTIONS
8-NICCANOVA $20/$6
7-WILD PLANET
12-THE HARROVIAN
11-VEGA ONE
18-APACHE CHASE
