Getting to this early to get in front and will update Tuesday morning when we know a lot more about the weather and how much rain has hit. Always an unbelievably hard day on the punt.
THE FIRST TWO RACES HAVE TOO MANY QUERIES FOR ME SO MIGHT LET THEM GO FOR NOW. Could update later.
Flemington Best Bets:
Race 3 #9 ARABIAN PRINCE $3.70
Race 4 #10 VANGOUGH BANKCHEQUE $15/$4
Race 5 #10 GOLDEN CENTURY $6.50
Race 9 #15 SURFIN’ BIRD $2.80
Race 10 #8 SABAJ $3.00
Race 3:
I get (3) CHAMPAGNE HERO comes out of way better races than these but it’s been getting lapped in them. Not for me at the price. Did like what (4) DIFFERENT GRAVY has done recently and keeps attacking the line. Only issue is the one he went over the line with last start was hopeless on Saturday.
(9) ARABIAN PRINCE was a genuine chance for me in the Derby and they scratched to run here. Does spot them a start and that’s the only query. Flemington is the right track and he is the one they all have to beat.
Not sold on (14) LUNA BAY yet but respect the stable and they have scratched last week to run here too. Blinkers go on and might just keep improving. (1) MATAHGA continues to stick the neck out in races. Fitter from the fresh run and should be one of the strongest late here.
On Top: (9) ARABIAN PRINCE $3.70
Next Best: 1-MATAHGA 4-DIFFERENT GRAVY, 14-LUNA BAY,
Race 4:
Love the $15/$4 (10) VANGOGH BANKCHEQUE here. It had trialled alongside the likes of Vestas who is a genuine group horse. Went to the bush for a debut run and was exceptionally good late. Best late splits of the whole day and could be a very good horse. Some handy ones here but he is over the odds.
(2) PALLATON has been good in blacktype races in Sydney and gets McDonald on top. Handles all ground and looks testing material for them. Same story for (1) ALEPPO PINE, in a great stable, has shown good ability and no knock from me.
(4) STREET ARTIST has won two on the trot and looks to just keep improving. In a super stable and has the best jock in Australia on board at the moment in Zahra. (12) WINTERY can be on speed and give a kick.
On Top: (10) VANGOGH BANKCHEQUE $15/$4
Others: (4) STREET ARTIST, (2) PALLATON, (1) ALEPPO PINE
Race 5:
I’ve always loved this race cup day, not sure why as I can’t remember ever backing the winner!
I’d be surprised if (9) LITZDEEL hasn’t been set up for this race this prep. Oaks winner in Adelaide last prep and runner up in a St Leger. She is a staying mare on the rise, light weight and Willams rides. Relatively unknown on soft ground and if she handles it she will be right in the finish.
Gee I love what Waller has done with (10) GOLDEN CENTURY this prep. Set alight and great fitness wins early in the prep. Then stepped up to 2400m, wobbled around the corner but good late and went over the line with LITZDEEL. Meets her 2kg better at the weights and gets Moreira on top. Around $6, yes thanks.
(11) RAGING BULL was good behind a couple of handy ones in the Bendigo Cup. Can be close here but only 3 wins from 43 starts. Long time between drinks for (14) FERAGO as well but is a wet tracker and genuine stayer. Respecting (1) CLEVELAND who has the class runner and just has to lump the big weight and (3) Don Diego De Vega who has run well in better races.
On Top: 10-GOLDEN CENTURY $6/$2.30
Next Best: 9-LITZDEEL, 14-FERAGO, 11-RAGING BULL
Race 6:
Have always liked (6) ATHANATHOS but he hasn’t got it done this prep and thought they might have tinkered with gear. Loomed to win a very good form race at Sandown and just peaked two back. Similar again last start behind the same horses.
Leading stable have (5) SAINT GEORGE and he was great fresh at Seymour. Does have good ability, is early fav and can improve off the fresh run. Can win without surprising. Not sure what to do with (3) KINGSWOOD, has the class to win this, I just struggle to find his day. Do like the fact it’s 3rd up and back to 1800m here.
The shock might be (12) REAL CLASS. Forget fresh run and it was a pass mark the way it was run. Really good through the line at $91 last time out. Like most of Wallers she will improve off those runs, Moreira rides and main query is weather. I’d be keen if drier.
On Top: 3 and 5 from 6 and 12
Race 7: The Melbourne Cup 3200m
Gibbos 2025 Melbourne Cup Selections
10-FLATTEN THE CURVE $34
24-VALIANT KING $9
6-PRESAGE NOCTURNE $8
14-HALF YOURS $6
1-AL RIFFA $7
Race 8:
McDonald takes over on (2) NAVY PILOT and it is suited here. Probably lands midfield off a decent tempo and the run in the Guineas was solid. Back to this trip suits, handles all conditions and looks to take some beating.
Nice win last start from (15) LUDLUM but amazed it is fav here off a maiden win at Seymor. Has a heap of upside and goes in my quaddie but feel he has to improve against these (which he just might do.)
I reckon (5) VEGA FOR LUCK is the wrong price at $20+. First up was next to Planet Red who was excellent in a Guineas and was only beaten a nose in the Guineas prelude. Wet would help his cause and he can surprise a few. (3) GRAND PRARIE is a wet tracker and won a recent trial. Snowden is a genius. Was going to risk (8) BURMA STAR but the heavy track win was awesome and beaten by one on the way up last time out. (7) RIPLEY got under my guard but has to go in, ready to peak.
Dominant effort from (4) BACASH last start and hard in the market here. Wide gate doesn’t look great but might not be bad at all if the fence is the slow ground by this stage.
Roughie: 3-GRAND PRARIE $15
Heap of chances- 7-RIPLEY 2-NAVY PILOT, 4-BACASH, 15-LUDLUM, 5-VEGA FOR LUCK, 8-BURMA STAR, 15-LUDLUM
Race 9:
My man Dean Watling at www.betsy.com.au put me onto (15) SURFIN BIRD and gee whiz it looks a good one for Waterhouse/Bott. Sat wide last start and just let down like a star. Ran the 5th best L4oom and 200m of the entire meeting that day. ,Gonna take some beating with a sweet run here.
Been waiting for (4) PONCE SCR to run for Waller. Thought trials were good in Sydney. Concern is JMAC rode her in them and he rides the stablemate (10) GUMDROPS who has found some of her better form again this prep. She can continue to improve but watch market with POUNCE.
(14) PODALOWIE is the wrong price at $20. This horse is flying but it just has a shit pattern that means it spots them too big of a start. Great late splits every time and if she jumps and lands in the first half of the field, she might be the main danger to the fav.
(2) SHES GOT PIZZAZZ is fitter 3rd up, blinkers first time, Shinn rides and was a dominant 1400m Listed winner on wet ground a couple of preps ago.
Beware Bjorn Baker over the carnival ad DANCE TO THE BOOM looking for a hat-trick.
On Top: 15-SURFIN’ BIRD $2.90
Next Best- 14-PODALOWIE, 2-SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ,
Race 10:
Think the clear next pick is (7) SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET. In the Maher stable, likes to settle midfield or worse and let down with a good turn of foot. Very consistent horse who has been placed to peak 3rd up and looks the testing material. Only start on wet was a flop and was noted ‘didn’t handle the track’. Soft should be ok- Heavy no good!
(3) NDOLA scratched from Saturday to run here and feel that may be because rain could suit him more than the fave. Has won 5 of 11 and probably peaks fitness wise 3rd up.
(12) PERSIAN SPIRIT is a genuine type that tries all the time. Handles all conditions and good quaddie chance.
(19) BOLTSAVER could surprise a few if it rains hard during the meeting.
On Top: 3-NDOLA, 7-SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET,
Next Best12-PERSIAN SPIRIT, (19) BOLTSAVER
