Interstate thoughts on a big G1 day of racing

I will have the Eagle Farm form done and up for RACING.COM but it’s a tricky meeting on a tricky track so I’ve gone over some of the interstate races knowing that many people who follow wouldn’t mind a leg up.

(The other great page to follow is the tipping page the Saturday tips go on with Tommy Haylock etc https://www.racing.com/news/search/tipping )

Caulfield Quaddie: (May update raceday)

1,2,3,4,5

1,2,15

1,2,3,4,11

1,2,5,7,11

*These are not exactly ‘best bets’ just thoughts on each race I took a look at for those chasing a bit of a steer*

 

Caulfield Race 2 #2 BUFFALO RIVER $3.50

This horse is NOT one of mine and I usually lay it, not back it! If he’s ever gonna win a race this should be in. Oliver takes the ride and he is the one out leader in the race. Oli should be able to rate him however he wants and if it’s any good at all it should put a length or two on them on the corner and hold them off. If not he’s sacked forever.

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Caulfield Race 4 #12 SHIHONKA $4.40

Probably short enough to be fair, I’m just believing my eyes with her. She showed more than enough in her first prep and looks to have come back a superior horse. Her trial was very good and then she won a really low maiden at Wyong. She was much faster than the bm68 on the same day and eased down late. Thinking Oliver will push forward on NEW YORK BABY and Childs might be able to grab his back for cover.

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Caulfield Race 5 #4 SEPTEMBER RUN $3.50

No doubt she is best at Flemington and it’s interesting she hasn’t gone around at this track yet. Savatoxl proved himself to be a very good horse last prep and we will have to watch the market with him. I’m sure she is a different level to the rest of them and can run over them late. Fingers crossed DOSH dishes it up to SAVATOXL early on. 

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Caulfield Race 7 #2 NUDGE $14  + #1 BROOKLYN HUSTLE $6

She owes me nothing this horse off a sensational prep in Qld. Yes she is a get back horse and yes she will be better at 1400m+. She is a different class than most of these though and the gate looks good. If she can land in front of 3-4 here and get fresh air in the straight she will run better than the odds suggest. If there is an issue it’s the fact there is no out and out leader so hoping a few jocks see that and put some speed into it. Reports of a throat problem with BROOKLYN HUSTLE last start I haven’t heard any more of. If shed is right she can still go back and win off a slow tempo. She’s a freak at her best against her own sex.

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Gibbo’s 2021 Guineas selections: 

1-ANAMOE $2.60

2-ARTORIOUS $4

15-RIVERPLATE $41

4-ALPINE EDGE $16

10-MR MOZART $14

Guineas preview: http://www.brissyraces.com.au/the-caulfield-guineas-preview-2021/

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Caulfield Race 10 #5 DELPHI $3.70

In what I regard as about the best stable in Australia and a real sense of timing about him. Continues to improve each time we see him and all his overseas form says he will be better now he gets out in trip. No knock on Oliver but I’d have rathered Allen on as he really suited the horse.

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Randwick Race 2 #2 ALWAYS SURE $13

A few lightly raced one’s with lightweights look the main dangers but this guys best is good and still has upside himself. I think they just made a mistake going to 1800m and the little query is can he come up again? There is enough speed to give him his chance here. A mile would be ideal but if Clark can land midfield and produce him at the right time I’m sure he can run better than the odds suggest. Market might tell us one of the lightweights is a moral so just keep an eye on the market.

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(Roughie small) Sydney Race 3 #11 FORTIFIED $21 and #7 SOLAR APEX

Just a smaller bet and splitting it. Not sure some of these in the market are actually that good. SOLAR APEX showed enough last prep and does look to have come back a better horse this time in work. Looks to be one heading in the right direction. FORTIFIED hasn’t beaten much in Qld but is a horse I’ve always thought would keep improving each time in work. He was good two back and just forgiving last start at Toowoomba. Runs better than $21 in my opinion.

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Randwick Race 6 #1 AMARELINHA $5  saving GRACE AND HARMONY $11

Main bet here AMARELINHA. I know she has to carry the big weight but she is clearly the class here. The gate is also sticky but has JMAC riding. Nice pipe opener fresh and you can expect her to improve sharply. She will be very strong late and class will carry her a long way. I was on track the day GRACE AND HARMONY won at the coast and she was a skinny little light filly there and still too good. If she continues to progress and get stronger she is over the odds here so I have to make her some type of winning result.

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Randwick Race 8 #1 HEAD OF STATE $3.80

When they opened $4.60 he was close to a super e/w bet. Can’t see how he misses the place. He and PROFONDO put a gap in them last start and both are very, very good colts. Both cost a shitload too. I’ve just gone his way as he is the ultimate professional and does everything right. PROFONDO on the other hand was running about and threw the race away last time out. Feel they are the best two in the race and that JMac/Waller combo is the one they all have to beat.

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Randwick Race 10 #5 KINLOCH $4.40

There is plenty of upside and really liked what he did last prep. He does back a little but has a very good turn of foot that wins him races. Recent trials have been good and Bowman looks a great booking.