A very different Melbourne Cup than we are used to with very little international flavour this year! Here is an early look and I may update leading into the race when conditions are better known.
INCENTIVISE is simply a star and he is the horse they all have to beat. He has won three group 1 races races in a row from 1600m to 2400m and has only looked better the further they go. He has had the three career runs at 2400m+ and has been extremely dominant at them. His Caulfield Cup win was the most dominant since Might And Power and he is the obvious one here. The 3200m is a query for all horses until they do it but all signs are he will run it out and run it out strong. He’s a freak and I can’t find a knock. Here is a replay of his outstanding CC win. https://youtu.be/tGnKCEgkYLg
SPANISH MISSION is a proper horse and would fit in any year in the great race. He’s gone around and run well in some of the better staying races in the U.K and matched it with some of the best stayers in the world. Williams is obviously a good booking, he should land around midfield and guaranteed to be strong late. Had the extra vet inspection which isn’t great but passed fit etc so play on. One of the main hopes here and he will just keep finding the line when some of the locals are getting a stitch. (Latest run https://youtu.be/cvvlAcJLN5U
DELPHI is a stupid price at $41. They rode him proper three runs back and he was excellent when beaten a nose by Nonconformist in a G3. Then he was flushed out at the 750m in the Herbert Power and Oliver pushed the button. The effort there to put a gap in them and hold them off easy was outstanding. I’ve put a line through the Caulfield Cup run, he went too hard early and a stupid play to take up the lead in the slow lane. In one of the best stables in the land and from the gate they can land where they want, hopefully about 8-10th smoking his pipe and grabbing the back of a horse like INCENTIVISE or FLOATING ARTIST. Replay of his Herbert Power win- https://youtu.be/xvyVMIQQHeo
VERRY ELLEEGANT is just a ripper. She is the genuine Weight For Age horse coming off a ripping run in a cox plate. Her run in this race last year was outstanding after spotting them a massive start on the corner. She ran the 2nd best L400m of the race and this year the key is getting JMAC back on top. He is the key to this horse and he knows her better than anyone. He’s in rare form and this mare can win for sure. Replay of last years race, she is in red on the outside 3rd last on the corner https://youtu.be/1fBe8I-FCOM
FLOATING ARTIST might be the next best and has copped misjudged rides with no luck. With just 50kg it has to be respected. The MV Cup run was a horror, he’d tracked up and looked the winner before being hampered and losing his spot before the corner. Attacked the line late running best L200m but ran out of time. It’s the lightweight chance that could surprise a few. Warming to him the closer we get to the race with the lightweight. MV Cup run https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0bpJv74n_VM
*I have those horses above as the main winning hopes but it’s a year where nothing would surprise with those filling the placings. SIR LUCAN is a horse I quite liked off the films but I don’t think Waterhourse has been her bullish self about him, that’s always a little strange because she is so up and about them usually. TWILIGHT PAYMENT got the cash in this race last year and probably gets in ok at the weights to be honest. He’s a tough type who will find a kick in the straight. PERSAN was 5th in this race last year and 3rd in the Caulfield Cup this year. TRALEE ROSE and GRAND PROMENADE are two who have a great record at the track and sure to run the trip out. Most years I’d say they are outclassed but with the overseas horses staying away they can finish in the money without surprising. Horses like EXPLOSIVE JACK and THE CHOSEN ONE had built into their preps really well before flops in the Caulfield Cup, just have to take them on trust.
Many I haven’t named that could play a part somewhere… Good luck if you have a play! UPDATED BELOW
Gibbo’s 2021 Cup Selections:
2-INCENTIVISE $2.40
22-FLOATING ARTIST $17
7-DELPHI $41
3-SPANISH MISSION $8
4-VERRY ELLEEGANT $12
