There doesn’t look to be much speed on paper. Id’ expect SMOKIN ROMANS, CHANGING OFTHEGUARD, GOODIE TWO SHOES and TORRANZINO to be in the thick of it early. They have seemed to go very quick or super slow in recent years, hopefully just a fair tempo to give them all a chance here.
I have been on FLATTEN THE CURVE for a long time and I’m not jumping off now. Just like what I see in replays. He runs a strong two miles and has a turn of foot to go with it. Like the fact he pins the ears back and really flattens out. The query is how good is the form around him? He’s won 6 of his last 7 and you can’t ask for much more. Gate looks bad but I think they will be coming down the middle and i’d rather be out there than back and stuck on fence. Handles all ground and has a fair weight. $51 into $34 and still looks well over the odds to me.
A heap of similar hopes, let’s look at the best Aussie trained horses in my opinion. From the moment HALF YOURS won the Caloundra cup up here by 4.5L I had him marked as a star. Not even I thought he’d go on to win a Caulfield Cup and be fav in the Melbourne Cup with just 51kg. Big bonus is any rain, he is a dead set duck. Has essentially been up since March, can they keep him up for one more run?
VALIANT KING was going like a mule in recent times and I can’t remember Blinkers having a better effect on any horse in recent times. They went on two runs ago in the 2500m G3 Bart Cummings which was a brutal staying test that day. He got to the outside and looked like he’d just chimed in at the 400m, he was in a different race. Then ran the best L600m of the Caulfield Cup where he was last and had to look for gaps on the corner. Wet is a query but we haven’t seen him on a wet track with blinkers yet. Genuine chance here and just 51kg too.
AL RIFFA comes here off consecutive dominant wins at the Curragh, the G2 Curragh Cup and the G1 St Leger. He’s the one I have wanted to be with but it is just the 59kg and spotting some in form horses a lot of weight. He is the class runner and he is in career best form. Also has Zahra riding and he is probably the best we have right now. He’s gonna look like the winner at some stage.
The French runner PRESAGE NOCTURE is a consist horse (won or placed in 13 of 17) with class who keeps running well in good quality races. The 3200m is perfect, he handles all ground and is by the super sire Wootton Bassett. Loved the fact they sent him around in the Caulfield Cup (4th) and he ran he best L200m of the race. He is right on target for this!
They are the ones I have as winning hopes, then there are a wave of them that could run very well without surprising.
MEYDAAN draws wide but gets James McDonald to help that. He looked like a drunken sailor at Caulfield and just go watch the L200m where he balanced up and ran the 2nd best L200m of the race. Flemington is what he is screaming out for and he has a touch of class and stamina. BUCKAROO was huge in this race last year and comes here this year off running 2nd in the WFA Cox plate. He is flying, just has to carry 2.5kg more than last year is the query. FURTHUR is the northern hemisphere 3yr old and they have a great record in the cup. Mixes form, hard to trust but can give it a shake if he has a ‘good day’. GOODIE TWO SHOES and RIVER OF STARS are a bit one paced but will stay all day, am respecting them and ROYAL SUPREMECY who Maher seems to think will appreciate the rain.
(I am posting tips early. THESE MAY CHANGE before Tuesday, so check back in. Have put them here as a guide for now)
Gibbos 2025 Melbourne Cup Selections
10-FLATTEN THE CURVE $34
24-VALIANT KING $9
6-PRESAGE NOCTURNE $8
14-HALF YOURS $6
1-AL RIFFA $7
REPLAYS:
FLATTEN THE CURVE below (blue and red colours)
AL RIFFA below (blue white and black)
PRESAGE NOCTURNE below (grey horse)
VALIANT KING (grey horse, white cap near the back, gets to the outside)
HALF YOURS (blue and black)
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AND THIS IS THE Caulfield Cup which had half the field run in it and is the main lead up race.
