One of the best tournaments and courses we see all year.
We said the Bear Trap is where the Cognizant would be won and unfortunately we were right (with Lowry losing a three shot lead to lose by 1)
Same again here, 16-17-18 have an enormous impact on the result. You need to take care of the Par 5 16th and birdie, then survive the Par 3 Island hole (17th). Any number is in play there, two bad swings and you could triple or quad. 18th is not the hardest but plenty have faltered under pressure there.
I’m risking RORY, just had back spasms and withdrew from the tournament last week. Has stayed home an extra day this week and you can’t have them all, so he’s a risk for me.
(Betfair prices at time of typing)
MY BETS:
FLEETWOOD $38 – Always been one of the world’s best but the breakthrough last year has made all the difference. Looks more confident and one of the best all-round games in the world. Maybe hasn’t been at his very best yet this year but is ranked 1st Around The Greens this season.
MATSUYAMA $44– Loved the way he started the year off and has just dropped off a little. Still ranked 1st in Scrambling and 5th Around The Greens. Think the short game will be important here and he’s had 4x Top 10’s in his last 8 starts here.
BHATIA $60– Not sure how he is this price. Winner last week and his last four starts have been T3 – T6 – T16 and 1st. Looked the winner for a fleeting moment here last year and he will look the winner again at some stage again off the Elevated win last week.
STRAKA $60– He frustrates me. One of the best ball strikers in the game but sometimes you look at the body language and looks as though he doesn’t give a Fu&^. Started the year well but the last two tournaments he’s just had one bad round which has cost him dearly. If he can just find that consistency, he can win. Has had a 9th, 16th and 14th in his last four years here. Sits 15th in Approach to Green this year.
KNAPP $55 – Tried to talk myself out of him but he’s the most consistent player on the PGA at the moment. Five starts this year T11, T5, 8th, T8, 6th and all in good tournaments. He’s 2nd in Shots Gained overall, 11th SG Tee to green and 4th Putting. He’s going as good as anyone.
ADAM SCOTT $100– Best of the Aussies for me. How’s this to start the year. 11th Shots gained overall. 13th SG Tee to green. 17th SG Approach to green. 17th in Driving Distance. 7th Proximity to the hole. Comes here off a 4th at the Genesis and T11 at the Arnold Palmer.
SAVERS:
SCHEFFLER $7 is the best player in the world but just a tough off his best at the moment. Already won this twice, just a saver for me here.
MORIKAWA $23 Flying at the moment and timing looks amazing for him. All round game is just getting better and can’t be losing if he wins.
