A great Saturday ahead. I was going to do the quaddie in two states but decided best to just focus on BRISBANE for another week. I will however put up a SYD quaddie.
A quick thankyou for those who touched base with an e-mail regarding a ‘brissyraces’ day at the end of the year. I am pretty keen to do it now after a good response.
Let’s get stuck into it!
Track- DOOMBEN
Rating-
RAIL- TRUE
*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS:
March 23
EPIC DOOMBEN R4 No.3 (1600m) : Gate makes it tough.
WRITE CHEEK DOOMBEN R4 No.6 (1600m) : Should run well in a strong race.
HOLD ME TIGHT DOOMBEN R4 No.8 (1600m) : Looks the winner and peaking.
BLACK MAGIC DOOMBEN R6 No.8 (1110m) : Tough assignment but will be the right odds.
VIS A TERGO DOOMBEN R8 No.11 (1110m) Very promising and may have the class to win. Tough gate.
Race 1:
AGITATE the one they all have to beat. Has been smashed in the market each start and this stable is very rarely wrong with their opinions! Dominant last start and a repeat is on the cards.
GREY COUNTESS clear 2nd selection and back up to 1110m is suitable.
IRON JACKET the one we are learning about and may go ok too. Any horse that wins on debut goes ok.
On Top: 1- AGITATE
Race 2:
These horses take it in turns and really not keen to bet again.
SECRET GARDEN is flying but jumps 4kg and gets on to a better surface? (she’d rather it wet).
VOLKHERE is super consistent but jumps back up to 2200m from 1600m?
Too many questions to tip in an ordinary race.
Race 3:
Couple of clear leaders in EPIC TERRA and ROCK HOME LATE. Surely they don’t cut at each other? Funnier things have happened. I’m sure Stewart is gonna push to hold out EPIC TERRA, but ET is a horse that can pull and over race and Harrison may have to let him go and try to cross?
Leaning ROCK HOME LATE as he is in great form. Was very brave on the unsuitable heavy last start. EPIC TERRA the one to beat but worried about the fact there is another leader here and I’m guessing he will over race.
TRANSPORTER is nearing form after two runs back and an improved performance is expected.
On Top: 5- ROCK HOME LATE
Hardest To Beat: 1- TRANSPORTER, 4- EPIC TERRA
Race 4:
Well I was really keen on HOLD ME TIGHT before I seen the price! $2.50 does seem a bit skinny? Anyhow I think he will win and I am selecting him. Byrne can box seat from gate 1. Her 1st up run was terrific and the effort 2nd up on a heavy track jumping from 1300m-1600m was full of merit. It will take a good one to beat her.
The danger is surely BLACK CASH who is a 4yr old gelding carrying only 1kg more than the 3 yr old filly and he does have quality about him. He ran well against a horse in form last start and Bell can nearly stalk the favourite from the good draw.
WRITE CHEEK is the other 3 yr old filly and she has had a great prep. She loves this circuit and should be respected.
EPIC will need luck from the wide gate but is in form and CHANDRA is going along really well and should be in tri’s etc.
On Top: 8- HOLD ME TIGHT
Next Best: 2- BLACK CASH, 6- WRITE CHEEK, 9- CHANDRA, 3- EPIC
Trifecta– 8 – 2,3,6,9 – 2,3,6,9
Race 5:
The day starts getting harder here!
A fair/moderate tempo should be set. BYMONASHEE got the job done for us at a good price last start but has to work a bit harder and goes up 2kg for the win. He loves this track and is a winning hope again.
MARGINS was one of the unlucky runners of the day 1st up. Some stayers can be hard to catch 2nd up but I think he is a very good horse.
DISCREET was enormous winning last start from near last on the corner. She gets gate 2 here and suspect Cahill will try to take advantage of that. Deserves to start fav and her biggest task will be getting clear running in the straight from that gate in the big field.
BESEECH looks to be hitting form and should get all the favours from the gate. $7.50 looks an inviting price.
ONETIMEATBANDCAMP was good 1st up and always improves lengths 2nd up. If that’s the case again he is right in this at $9.
BINGO ROSE has been going well, drops 5.5kg and Colless stays on. TOP OF THE ROCK solid last start but had all the favours, she meets BYMONASHEE 5.5kg better off…
*A really good race. DISCREET should win with the right run but I do have a question as to where she will be and she may need a lot of luck in running so I have tried to find some value.
On Top: 1- BESEECH e/w
Hardest To Beat: 13- DISCREET,
Race 6:
ROCKER, MEMORABLE MOMENT and SEA TRYST all trialled pretty good and will run well here. Only my opinion but I felt MEMORABLE MOMENT maybe trialled the best.
SEA TRYST was consistent in S.A and joins Gollan stable. ROCKER gets Colless and gate 5!
Although THE RINGMASTER has gate 8 he has won 4 of 5 first up. I feel he is a superior horse when let settle just in front of midfield but for some reason they are always keen to push forward? I think if they ride him that way I like him, but how will they ride him?? If they push forward they may get caught wide..
ASSIMILATOR is a very handy North QLDer, hard to line up..
DOUBLE IMPACT is a quality horse who would love a track dead or worse.
I liked COME SAID THE BOY last week when he lost the rider. How does it back up is the question?
BLACK MAGIC is a blackbooker. Idid expect them to go an easier option though.
J.Dann is a clever trainer and stable is going well, wouldn’t surprise if TEA TATTLE ran ok at massive odds.
*An even race and I wouldn’t talk people out of anything they liked..
On Top: 1- THE RINGMASTER
Hardest To Beat: 2- ROCKER, 6- MEMORABLE MOMENT
Race 7:
Luck in running will play a big part here. I was pretty keen on PROST and WAR ENDS being the main two here but the biggest issue is the pace in the race- or lack of it? Really not sure who will lead and at first glance it could be an ugly run race.
I liked WAR ENDS 1st up, forget 2nd run back on leaders track and was no chance. Trialled really well since and most importantly likes this track (his last two runs here were a win and a 3rd to Solzhenitsyn)
PROST gets down in the weights, should have won last start and gets back on top of the ground.
JOINT CHIEFS may roll forward and that would be beneficial here. DOUBTFUL JACK has been around the money but a long time out of the winners stall.
SKATING ON ICE has class on her side and if they decide to back her up I would take that as a good push.
DUSTY GOLD gets a horrible gate again but can win with luck.
*Tricky but interesting. PROST may be the one but just putting WAR ENDS on top at the $12.
Value: 5- WAR ENDS @ $12
Hardest To Beat: 9- PROST, 7- SKATING ON ICE
Race 8:
Buy a lottery ticket…
Nearly every horse brings a different formline!
DOUBTFILLY in well after the 2kg claim? Carries 58kg. Ran 4th to a horse called Pierro in a Golden Slipper..
TIGER DIMEJAN is a serious filly who gets in well after the claim. Dominant last start and gets the right gate.
SEEKING MORE= Cahill + Gate 1. Expect a very good run.
Matt Dunn has three entered- TEN GAGUE, Q FIGHTER and VIS A TERGO. All three have legitimate chances. I am big on gates for 1100m around Doomben but VIS A TERGO is the one I feel is the best horse. This may be too short and the other pair beat her home but I’m sticking with my judgement that she is pretty good..
*Many many chances….
On Top: 11- VIS A TERGO @ $13
Others: 5- TIGER DIMEJAN, 4- SEEKING MORE, 1- DOUBTFILLY, 3-QFIGHTER
GIBBOS BEST BET:
Brisbane Race 4 No.8 HOLD ME TIGHT
Each-way Brisbane race 6 No.1 THE RINGMASTER
Interstate- Melbourne race 8 No.10 ROYAL AMATI e/w
This weeks ‘Longshot’ – Sydney Race 7 No.14 RISK AVERSION
BRISBANE Quadrella:
1,11,12,13 —– 1,2,6 —– 5,7,9,14 —– 1,3,4,5,11,16
(Wide for a smaller % is my play)
SYDNEY Quadrella:
12,13 —– 3,5,6,7,11,14 —– 3,7,10 —– 4,5,13
‘THE PROPHETS BEST’
Brisbane race 6 No.2 ROCKER
Melbourne race 8 No.10 ROYAL AMATI
TATTSBET MARKET MOVERS AND JACKPOTS:
DOOMBEN
1/3 Iron Jacket $10.0/$9.0
2/3 Volkhere $2.4/$2.0
ROSEHILL
6/1 Manighar $11.0/$8.0
7/13 Bennetta $10.0/$8.0
9/12 Ying La $9.0/$8.5
CAULFIELD
3/6 Sharnee Rose $10.0/$9.0
5/2 Dazzler $7.5/$7.0
MOONEE VALLEY (TONIGHT)
4/6 Swinging Solider $14.0/$12.0
6/2 Spirit Song $4.4/$4.0
7/4 Mecir $6.0/$5.0
|
JACKPOT ALLOCATION |
|
for Saturday, 23 March 2013 |
|
POOL |
VENUE |
RACE |
CARRYOVER |
RACE NAME |
|
TF |
ROSEHILL (SR) |
7 |
$96,431 |
COOLMORE CLASSIC |
|
TT |
MORPHETTVILLE (AR) |
|
$12,613 |
RACES 6, 7 & 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
POOL |
VENUE |
RACE |
CARRYOVER |
RACE NAME |
|
F4 |
MENANGLE (ST) |
5 |
$2,000 |
GOLDEN MILE |
|
F4 |
MELTON (MT) |
3 |
$2,000 |
GREAT SOUTHERN STAR (1ST HEAT) |
|
F4 |
MELTON (MT) |
4 |
$2,000 |
GREAT SOUTHERN STAR (2ND HEAT) |
|
F4 |
MELTON (MT) |
7 |
$2,000 |
BREED FOR SPEED GOLD FINAL |
|
TF |
ALBION PARK (BT) |
1 |
$30,000 |
M1 ONLY |
|
TF |
GLOBE DERBY (AT) |
1 |
$15,000 |
C1 ONLY |
|
POOL |
VENUE |
RACE |
CARRYOVER |
RACE NAME |
|
F4 |
WENTWORTH PARK (SG) |
5 |
$1,000 |
GOLDEN EASTER EGG SF1 |
|
F4 |
WENTWORTH PARK (SG) |
6 |
$1,000 |
GOLDEN EASTER EGG SF2 |
|
F4 |
WENTWORTH PARK (SG) |
7 |
$1,000 |
GOLDEN EASTER EGG SF3 |
|
F4 |
WENTWORTH PARK (SG) |
8 |
$1,000 |
GOLDEN EASTER EGG SF4 |
**Good luck guys. Hopefully I can help find a winner or two!!
