Doomben Saturday

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Rail goes to 5m. No doubt there was a slight bias last week which we haven’t seen for some time so that leaves a little question over how it plays this week. One thing for sure is it won’t hurt to be up on speed early anyway.

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Just want to mention www.theraceclub.com.au who I am now writing for and doing 4-5 articles a week with. That’s just the QLD part, there is a team of (smarter blokes than myself) doing the other states and you also get live mounting yard mail in SYD and MELB. Up to around 25 previews a week for $5.50, the price of a coffee or a single formguide.

It might not be for everyone but I know there would be heaps of people on this site paying more than that elsewhere. If you aren’t happy there, try THE RACE CLUB.

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Race 1:

Love the fact RED STINA gets blinkers but may not help if it’s a walking race up front. Stewart rode PUMPS a treat last start and a repeat of that ride/run would make it hard for RED STINA.

*Leaning RED STINA but at the prices i’ll be watching on.

 

Enhanced 12

 

Race 2:

Tricky race. Of the main chances LINLITHGOW draws the best gate and has the speed to sit just behind the leaders. Liked the fresh win and has plenty of upside. Gets the favours and has the pattern to win.

LAST ARMAGEDDON was also very good returning at Rocky. Dominant win there and Stewart stays on. He has had 4 steers on him for 2 wins and 2 placings. Another one on the way up.

DIVINE MESSENGER comes out of far better races and this is a nice drop in grade but the gate has to be an issue. Really needs them to over cook the speed up front, but classy enough if they do.

On Top:  11-LINLITHGOW $3.90

Hardest To Beat:  5-LAST ARMAGEDDON,  14-DIVINE MESSENGER

 

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Race 3:

Typical staying race up here, looks a slow tempo yet again.

Not a race I want to get too involved in but like the way they have set up I FEEL GOOD. Won two starts back in the staying race Ipswich cup day on the quick back up and that’s the plan again here. Raced very well from the back last week in open grade and this is a good drop back in grade. Set up beautifully and hope they get a result but only a small bet for me.

On Top:  3-I FEEL GOOD $8

 

 

Race 4:

Most punters look at TARZAN as a sunny coast horse but he’s won here and although he has been very good on the wet tracks lately he can run time on good tracks. He actually won his last two starts on dry tracks back in Jan. They have taken the claim, they will look to lead and keep running with the lighter weight. Very hard to catch if he’s on song.

JUST ORM has won a trial and Gollan worked him out last prep spacing runs. Really raced well last time in work and can sit a few pairs back and be the one swooping late. Open last campaign with a 2.8L win. Winning hope for sure.

*Backed TARZAN when markets opened but might have smaller bet JUST ORM also.

On Top: 3-TARZAN $6

Hardest To Beat:  13-JUST ORM $7

pineapple

 

Race 5:

SPEEDMAP:

D55

When I first went through this race I landed on NO ANNAMOSSITY and then prices went up $2… I’m a bit of a thrill seeker but not enough to bet here. He is the one they have to beat off a good run at Listed level and with McGillivray on who hasn’t missed a place on him from three steers.

SABKHAT led at good speed and just kept running last week on a track where it suited. Flattered? Possibly but it was a great effort and he is in great form. Takes the claim and tactics will be the same.

They look the two but if they over do the tempo MAGSTOCK has the ability to run over them. Nice drop in grade from the races he ran in over the carnival and he was extremely good from the back in those (Has run the 2nd fastest last 200m split in both his runs -1350m G3 and Listed level 1600m). By this stage of the day we will know if there is a bias. If you can win from the back $9 is a good e/w bet him, reckon he is a lot better than he has got credit for so far in Brisbane.

*Might wait and see how tracks playing but possibly e/w MAGSTOCK $9 for me.

 

 

Race 6:

I’m filthy about missing ITALIA BELLA last start. I’ve said on here before I thought she could be a group horse when she got to 2000m+ but wasn’t convinced she’d come back as well as she can go. All she needed was a dry track! Top jock sticks, gets a gate to sit in the first 4 settling again, love the fact she gets to the mile and feel class can get her home again.

SCALLOPINI $8 meets ITALIA BELLA 4.5kg better off at the weights from last start where he had no luck and you just have to forgive that effort. He has got a few tricks but gets a gate where he should be able to land midfield and get his chance.

CEDARWOOD, GOLD AMBITION and SACRED REBEL all go in exotics.

*Keen ITALIA BELLA

On Top: 10-ITALIA BELLA $2.80

Others: 4-SCALLOPINI,  1-GOLD AMBITION

 

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Race 7:

Gotta be totally honest and say I’ve landed with ON THE SPOT by default here. Some nice horses engaged with TVERSKY and CAPITAL CONNECTION but gates and speed mean ON THE SPOT looks a safer option here. Should be able to box seat and get all the favours in the run. Has improved each run for the Edmonds camp and Orman’s confidence is sky high.

As mentioned a few other nice horses but luck will play a major role in this so not really keen to play.

*Maybe small play ON THE SPOT here for me as it’s the one that should get every chance.

On Top:  7-ON THE SPOT $4

 

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Race 8:

SPEEDMAP:

D88

Very even sort of race and I had it down to about three main hopes.

FERNIEHIRST is an on speed horse and I believe Cahill will lead them all. She was very good last prep running 2nd to Snitz in the country championship qualifier, that run would win this. Fresh at the Grafton carnival she got a pass mark behind the in form KING LEAR. Should improve off that and if it is a leaders track she is value at the $10 opening price.

We were on SORNJA when $41 into $11 first up and she went super to run 2nd. She did get over a staying trip so may want further after this but off that run fresh she can win and is again $11. Only query is she might be three back the fence and need some luck.

PRUE’S ANGEL is suited from gate 8. Means she is probably forced to be about three pairs back and I feel she is best when held up a little longer. A good quality mare and deserved fav.

*SUMMARY- Had small bet FERNIEHIRST and might quinella with the other two raceday.

Value: 7-FERNIEHIRST $10

Next Best:  14-SORNJA $11,  4-PRUE’S ANGEL

 

 

Race 9:

SPEEDMAP:

D99

Guess the main issue here is once we were on a bias track last week the jocks just completely over cooked the last two races and went stupid in front.

I have NATCH leading again but even if they do want to go stupid for some reason Stewart can take a sit on NATCH and still be the horse to beat. The ride was excellent last start and the run just as good, he is in great form and the one to beat.

SHOGUN SON looks to have poor dry track for stat wise but has run some ripping races on top of the ground. Been three wide his last couple, should get a suck run midfield here and his best would win this. Respecting!

FORTENSKY will do his thing and run well, always puts himself in the race and was very consistent last prep.

You don’t see Jeff run last on one and retain the ride much so BEL BURGESS creates some interest.

On Top:  6-NATCH $3.40

Hardest To beat: 14-SHOGUN SON,

 

Winx 4

 

GIBBOS BEST

Best:

Race 6 No.10-ITALIA BELLA $2.80

Next best

Race 4 No.3-TARZAN $6

NOTE: Roughie

Wanted to mention a good quality QLD horse at odds in SYD

SYD Race 8 No.13- BERGERAC  $17 + $4.60

 

QUADDIE NUMBERS:

to be added

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Race 7 No.7- ON THE SPOT

Race 9 No.6- NATCH