My favourite track to punt on and dry weather so you’d think I’d be doing handstands! Unfortunately a lot of horses i’ve been waiting for have drawn poorly and for that reason I’m not very keen on the day at all.
**Preview will be final after 9am Saturday**
NOTE**** Depending on time each week I’m looking at introducing a STAR RATING for each race, next to the race number (just as a guide, I try to get that across in the preview but maybe it might help to have something like this). I’ll try to rate each race roughly from 1-5 stars. 1 star being not confident and unlikely to bet- through to 5 stars and a very good bet. THIS MEETING AS A WHOLE I’D ONLY BE AT * *
RACE 1: * * * *
Not a bad Fillies and mares race, happy to go with the class even though they will need some luck in running. It’s not a good past time backing horses who get back at Doomben but feel OF THE DAY and FEMME FIREBALL are always extremely hard to beat when they drop back from Listed grade.
FEMME FIREBALL was placed far better last prep and kicked it off with 3 straight wins. She’d be better suited over the road but still has the class to get to the outside and run over them late. $6.50 a fair price.
OF THE DAY $8 is another who just couldn’t get it done in Listed company but in this grade she excels. From gate 3 I’m sure Gollan would like them to land in front of 4-5 others here and have the jump on FEMME FIREBALL. Will need some luck on the corner but has the right bloke on top in J Mac.
*Can have win bets both FEMME FIREBALL and OF THE DAY at the current prices.
On Top: 2-FEMME FIREBALL $6.50 ++ 3-OF THE DAY $8
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RACE 2: * * *
Lickety split here!
NO ANNAMOSSITY is clearly the best horse in the race, he will probably end up last from the bad gate but with a hot tempo here he will be extremely strong late. He was taking on the likes of I’m A Rippa, Victorem and co. last prep, this is a massive drop in grade from that and with clear air in the straight $15 looks over the odds.
The other bit of value might have been SUPER SAUVE even though he looks to be scared of winning, a couple of times recently he looks as though he’d win only to turn his head and lay in late. He gets a good run off the hot tempo and has a turn of foot to put him in this race. Good runs behind Capital Connection and Curdled this prep line up well and at $19 he could be a 1w x 3p type of bet.
*Heaps of other chances but they look the value.
On Top: 2-NO ANNAMOSSITY $15 +++ 11-SUPER SUAVE $19
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RACE 3: *
Have been waiting for SO SPIRITED but again draws poorly, in three runs up here he’s 12,16 and 17. Great runs his last two but too many queries from the gate for me here.
Not a fan of CRUZE, gave up on him a while ago but his last two have been about his best. He’s the horse weighted to win and gets the right gate, gets his chance.
Could have backed SNITCH but not keen on the 59.5kg.
If I had to have one on top it would be THE AVENGER, McEvoy rides. He can land three pairs back one off and get the gun run. The form from Shogun Sun Insansata will line up well.
*On Top– THE AVENGER but giving the race a wide berth.
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RACE 4: *
MULTAJA looked the one off nom’s and still does but I’m not one to take short odds and at even money i don’t have to play here. She won a G3 in good style two back before being runner up at Hawksbury in another G3 behind Irithea. She is clearly the one they have to beat.
RACECOURSE ROAD can be up front and out of trouble, that counts for plenty here at Doomben. Lloyd suits the horse beautifully and he should be near the money, similar scenario for MISHANI HUSTLER who has been gelded and is always tough on speed.
Numbers: 12-3-1 but I won’t be betting in the race.
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RACE 5: *
Very little between DEALMAKER and PURPLE SECTOR and even though DEALMAKER has got over the top of PURPLE SECTOR late the last couple of runs I feel PS has been every bit as good as he’s made his runs earlier and spent a few pennies. The issue is the synthetic hoof filler, it’s not the end of the world but it’s also not ideal. DEALMAKER can win but I can’t come into an odds on quote.
BORAZON has just kept getting better and clearly a horse that wants 2000m+ to show his best, he’s heading the right way.
Was going to sack A MAN TO MATCH but you just have to back GOLLAN in and say everything has been aimed at the Derby and he’s got improvement in the horse. Sectionals say he was very good until the 200m and condition might have got him. if he wins I wouldn’t be shocked.
*Not a race I think I’ll bet into.
On Top: 4-PURPLE SECTOR
Hardest To Beat: 1-DEALMAKER, 3-A MAN TO MATCH, 5-BORAZON
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RACE 6: * *
Feel DUBIOUS has been a little overrated in his career to date but he looks very well placed here. He can probably land in the 3rd pair with cover and some good horses look as though they will be trapped wide from bad gates. J Mac can swing off him before the corner and he should be able to sprint better than these.
I’m not giving up on GARIBALDI, he’s a lot better than we witnessed last start, Lloyd goes on and I think there is a chance they will ride a little quieter and possibly find the back of DUBIOUS, that would be ideal, at $18 i’ve had a small bet.
OH FIVE GLORY is about as good as any QLD youngster, just draws a really sticky gate!
*Not over playing this race, had small bets DUBIOUS and GARIBALDI
On Top: 1-DUBIOUS $4.20
Value: 6-GARIBALDI $18
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RACE 7: * * *
GEM SONG clearly the one to beat, not much meat on the bone at the $2.30 now. At the opening price of $4.20 he’d have been a great play but that lasted five mins! Extremely good runs his last two, the Syd race will be a super formline and he toyed with them last start at EF. Gets the good trip in transit and I feel he’d be a good Stradbroke hope so he’d want to be beating these.
A couple at big prices that can run better than the odds suggest. CELLARMAN $26 has had two runs back after a long break. Both runs have been at the unsuitable 1200m and the latest on a heavy track. Gets a gate to sit in the first half of the field, gets back on dry ground and out to a trip that suits. MISHANI VAIDRA $61 has been airborne this prep and her sectionals outstanding. Complete forgive last start when she pulled up with issues. The problem is the gate and the fact she spots them a start, hoping they ride her for luck or find the back of the right horse.
On Top: 10-GEM SONG $2.30
Roughies: 2-CELLARMAN $26 and 13-MISHANI VAIDRA $61
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RACE 8: * *
Another fav I can’t have at the price. I don’t like horses who bolt in or get belted and that’s NATURE STRIP, any amount of abilty and might be the best horse in the world over 1000m but odds on here isn’t for me.
OSBOURNE BULLS is a genuine G1 horse and comes here off four runner up finishes in G1 races (and the best G1 sprints we have). Draws a gate to get a very soft run midfield and he should be able to sprint better than these late. Blinkers go on and he will never get a better chance to win a G1.
OUTBACK BARBIE can run a race, she is a very good fresh horse, love the blinkers going on her almost as much as i like Jeff steering. Her issue is getting a run at the right time because she is likely to be a few pairs back on the rails.
Love the way CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES is going, reckon she’s been as good as OB in Syd since blinkers went on. She just has a horrible gate and you need everything to go right in a G1 1200m race around Doomben.
On Top: 1-OSBORNE BULLS $3.40
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RACE 9: * *
Might be reading way too much into it but HARIPOUR’s two runs the Syd direction since being in OZ have been a couple of his worst. At first look at this race he was clearly on top for me. He is progressive, J Mac rides and he gets the gun run. Just have in the back of my mind he might be lengths better the other way?
OUR LIBRETTO was clearly better than that horse last start, she got back and run the fastest L200m of the race. From the good gate and only a slow tempo here I really want Kah to be a little positive, just enough to hold a spot midfield. She is a lightly raced mare with a winning strike rate and she can add to the tally here.
Like IGRAINE the NZ mare. She is an on pacer who can get some favours here if they leave her alone. Very honest type and sure she gives a good sight at double figure odds.
*Big field and luck will play a major role!
On Top: 7-OUR LIBRETTO $5.50
Hardest To Beat: 5-HARIPOUR, 12-IGRAINE $14
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GIBBOS BEST:
No specials, just playing around with a lot of the horses at value in the preview, looking for another Coldstone from last week.
QUADDIE NUMBERS:
1-3-4-5-6-7
10
1-2-11-13
5-7-12
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‘THE PROHETS’ BEST:
Race 8 No.1-OSBOURNE BULLS $3.40
Race 9 No.12-IGRAINE $14
