It’s here! The Cup has arrived.
I try to accommodate all types of punters on the site and this is the race for once a year punters, so you may want to send a link to mothers, father, brothers and sisters who are looking for a steer into the cup runners.
Like most Melbourne Cups luck in the running is the biggest factor. This year rain is predicted in the afternoon and that will have a major impact on the race (if it arrives before the race).
This is just a look at the runners through my eyes.
- DUNADEN (16) 59.0kg
Last year’s winner and a horse in super form. Comes off the Caulfield Cup win which is the main lead up race to the cup. Williams is one of the world’s best jockey’s and Dunaden one of the world’s best stayers, that’s a lethal combination and he will run a mighty race.
2. AMERICAIN (12) 58kg
2010 winner. Was under done leading into Caulfield Cup but ran very well. He threw both front shoes that day and the glue on shoes go on here. His work at Werribee was outstanding last week and he will improve out of sight. Damien Oliver takes the ride and any rain would only increase the confidence in him. The one to beat.
3. JAKKALBERRY (19) 55.5kg
Bit disappointing at Caulfield. Has class on his day and Flemington should suit him better. Not one of my winning chances, but not the worst.
4. RED CADEAUX (18) 55.5kg
Comes off a long break here but that’s how he runs his best races. Was a gallant 2nd to Dunaden last year and meets that horse 2.5kg better at the weights this year. He is consistent, has a world class trainer and looks a treat at the quarantine centre. One of the top rated here.
5. WINCHESTER (22) 55.5kg
Slight injury concern through the week but run well Saturday. Again hard to see him winning but far from the worst.
6. VOILA ICI (13) 55kg
A lot was expected of this fella after a couple of good runs in Australia but ran a miserable last in the Caulfield Cup. A return to earlier form gives him a chance but you’d have to be very forgiving.
7. CAVALRYMAN (6) 54kg
Probably well weighted. Ran some terrific races when he was a 3 year old, but form has been solid enough this year to make him some hope for trifecta’s etc at big odds.
8. MOUNT ATHOS (8) 54kg
Comes into this fresh and has a real sense of timing about him. He has had 3 runs for this stable for 3 extremely impressive wins! He has been racing in listed and Group 3 races with 61kg-63kg. Drops to 54kg and has a great turn of foot. He’s the one who could blow them away. Barrier 8 is perfect and if the track stays dry it will take a good one to beat him.
9. SANAGAS (4) 54kg
Bart Cumming is a genius but he will have to be to get this bloke up. Going well enough to run top 10, but hard to see him winning. (If he wasn’t Bart’s horse I’d give him no chance)
10. ETHIOPIA (14) 53.5kg
One of Australia’s best chances. Slight concern this race wasn’t their main target, but he is a true stayer with a light weight and a barrier that should suit. Big Flemington track will also suit and expect a good run.
11. FIORENTE (2) 53.5kg
Really not sure what to make of this horse? Beat Red Cadeaux last start but was on the ‘fast’ side of the track. That makes it hard to line up.. Can’t say ‘yes’ but can’t say ‘no’.
12. GALILEO’S CHOICE (11) 53.5kg
This is one of the best roughies in the race. He’s a winner. He has won or placed in 13 of his 16 starts. Would really love a drop of rain. He can take a position wherever they want from the good gate. He relaxes well and will sprint well with just 53.5kg. Really like his chances at big odds (especially if the rain comes).
13. GLENCADAM GOLD (7) 53.5kg
Looked like Might And Power winning the Metropolitan in Sydney before looking like a Murwillumbah maiden in the Caulfield Cup. Also a slight injury question this week. The form from Metropolitan looks a bit better with Kelinni winning and this fella beat him by 3 ½.
14. GREEN MOON (5) 53.5kg
Blew out to a big price after Cox Plate ‘flop’. It wasn’t that bad. The horse was 3 wide in a high pressure race with 59kg. A drop to 53.5 kg, a cushy run from gate 5 and he may well be the forgotten horse!
15. MALUCKYDAY (9) 53.5kg
One of the best stayers Australia has seen for a while. Unfortunately nearly died not long after running 2nd to Americain in 2010. Has come back well and he will again acquit himself well. 3200m is what he is looking for and rain would also help.
16. MOURAYAN (3) 53.5kg
The best ‘roughie’ in my opinion. He will sit 4th-5th in the run and get every opportunity. I have no doubt on a dry track he will be in front at the 300m mark and the horse they have to run down. His 3 runs this prep have been excellent at WFA and drops 5.5kg to only 53.5kg. He’s fighter and you know he will keep sticking his head out in a fight. Goes in all my trifecta’s etc.
17. MY QUEST FOR PEACE) (1) 53.5kg
Good run at Caulfield. 3200m should suit and gets a great run from gate 1. One of the true stayers from Europe and I’d expect him to put himself in the race. Good chance.
18. NIWOT (15) 53.5kg
Will start massive odds but some hope for first 4’s etc. He loves 3200m and Flemington. Rain would also help him but he is a top 6 chance on his best form.
19. TAC DE BOISTRON (21) 53.5kg
On overseas form this is simply a wet track horse. All wins have been on very wet tracks, so obviously will be looking for rain.
20. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (17) 53kg
Really like the way Peter Moody has timed this horses’ preparation. Best run this time in was last start in the Caulfield Cup and further improvement makes her a legitimate chance. Liked her last 50m last start running through the line suggesting the 3200m may suit.
21. PRECEDENCE (20) 53kg
Bart’s other horse. Ran well in this race last year but really mixes form. Bart would only have been worried about this race so you can expect this to be his best run this prep. In saying that, a win would surprise.
22. UNUSUAL SUSPECT (23) 53kg
Ran well in the cup last year. Couldn’t win on form lately and gate 23 is no help!
23. ZABEELIONAIRE (24) 52kg
A super run on Saturday that has the horse peaking for this. 52kg means he can sprint well late and looks a chance for those going wide in trifecta’s. Will need a good ride after drawing barrier 24, that’s the only concern.
24. KELINNI (10) 51kg
Winner of the Lexus on Saturday to gain a start. The winner of that race usually runs well here. He wasn’t overly impressive and was slightly lucky to win. He does get in with 51kg though and is obviously in form. Not the worst.
GIBBO’S MELBOURNE CUP THOUGHTS:
One of the best cups we have ever seen. What makes it tough to tip at the moment is not knowing how much rain (if any) falls on Tuesday. Many horses chances rely on the track condition, and of course luck in running and getting an uninterrupted run is crucial.
Very hard to go past the proven French horses AMERICAIN and DUNADEN. Forget people telling you horses with 58kg+ don’t win the cup, that’s rubbish now as the cup has changed forever with top shelf European stayers hitting our shores and the weights becoming compressed. We will see it more often. Those two are flying and I can’t get AMERICAIN’S last gallop out of my head! It was super.
The horses that may have got under the handicappers guard are MOUNT ATHOS and GALILEO’S CHOICE. Both have good winning records but get in with nice weights. They are the horses on the way up and they could take a massive leap forward and go on to big things. They must be respected.
RED CADEAUX comes in fresh and meets DUNADEN better at the weight.
Lloyd Williams has GREEN MOON and MOURAYAN who will both acquit themselves well. I think both are generous odds at $18 and $28 respectively.
GIBBO Selects:
2-AMERICAIN
8-MOUNT ATHOS
1-DUNADEN
16-MOURAYAN
4-RED CADEAUX
**I’ve also chased up a few mates you may know to give us their ‘Celebrity’ tips!
(It is early to ask them to tip this far out, but thanks guys)
‘THE PROPHET’ 8-MOUNT ATHOS, 20-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 16-MOURAYAN, 14-GREEN MOON
(brissyraces resident tipster)
NEIL JENKINSON -17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 4-RED CADEAUX, 2-AMERICAIN, 1-DUNADEN
(Leading bloodstock agent)
TOM ROCKLIFF – 1-DUNADEN, 13-GLENCADEM GOLD, 2-AMERICAIN, 20-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN.
(Brisbane Lions)
TONY GOLLAN– 2-AMERICAIN, 1-DUNADEN, 20-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 14-GREEN MOON.
(Leading QLD trainer)
STEVE HEWLETT– 8-MOUNT ATHOS, 1-DUNADEN, 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 2-AMERICAIN.
(RadioTab)
LUKE COVELL– 2-AMERICAIN, 24-KELINNI, 10-ETHIOPIA, 4-RED CADEAUX
(Cronulla Shark-NZ rugby League)
JOSH DRUMMOND- 2-AMERICAIN, 14-GREEN MOON, 1-DUNADEN, 15-MALUCKYDAY
(Retired Brisbane Lion)
DAMIEN QUINN– 2-AMERICAIN, 8-MOUNT ATHOS, 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 14-GREEN MOON
(Ex Celtic Crusaders and deported superleague player)
TIM NEILSEN –20- LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 16-MOURAYAN, 8-MOUNT ATHOS, 17-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 10-ETHIOPIA
(Former Aussie cricket coach)
**A small preview with best bets on cup day up late Monday.. It will contain some of the days best bets and quaddie numbers
